On this blog I have a bunch of posts that could be made into an interesting book on hyperinflation.
Some of the key ones are:
- Positive Feedback Theory of Hyperinflation
- CMMT - Cate's Modern Monetary Theory
- Hyperinflation Explained Many Different Ways
- How We Know High Inflation is Coming
- Stages of Hyperinflation
- How to Prepare for Hyperinflation
- parts of Krugman's Missing Model
- combined with Simulating Hyperinflation
- Hyperinflation FAQ
If I could find a partner to turn this content into a book, I expect it could make some money for both of us. I am looking for someone with the following:
- Experience writing a book
- Experience self publishing
- Experience getting book onto Amazon.
- An understanding of Austrian economics.
- Preferably living outside USA
- Willing to work for share of profits or to get paid after book is on Amazon
If you are interested or know someone who might be, please contact me at vincecate@gmail.com.
Hi Vincent. According to you predictions at the end of 2013, we should start seeing hyperinflation hitting Japan in about 7 months, correct?
ReplyDeleteDid you and Jason ever agree on a bet about that?
Predictions are really hard, especially about the future. :-)
ReplyDeleteI still think Japan is headed for trouble soon.
Note also that when people start getting out of bonds is when things start going bad. Bonds are having trouble recently.
ReplyDeleteHi Vincent. I know I've asked you this before, but how do you know if you're wrong? I'll give you credit: you're one of the only people out there writing on these subjects that's willing to tell me that. If I'm not mistaken, that line of questioning may have had something to do with your "hyperinflation in Japan by 2016" prediction originally. I'm not sure though, because it's a little foggy now.
ReplyDeleteI agree that predictions are really hard, but I'd accept a set of future empirical data about somewhere in the world that would convince you that you're wrong. For example: "If a 1st world country with X, Y or Z characteristics experiences A, B, or C concurrently with D, E and F, baring nuclear war or a plague that kills 1/3 of their population, then I'd know I've been wrong."
If you ask an evolutionary biologist about what would convince him that the theory of evolution is wrong, they can give you a list of things. A rabbit fossil in the pre-Cambrian layer is a classic one on that list. (I just saw a list like this from a biologist by the name of Jerry Coyne this morning). In other words, even though there's a lot of evidence to support evolution, it's still a theory, and it can be falsified.
So what combination of future data would convince you that you're wrong? Can you give any examples? Would "No hyperinflation in Japan in 2016" do it? Would "No hyperinflation in the first 6 months of 2016" do it? Do you need to make a more complex example?
Lets flip this around. If I am able to make investments that the market puts at 1 in 100 shots and come out correct often enough that I make a lot of money and have a big yacht, would you then believe I was right?
DeleteBut as a real answer to your question, if Japan is able to monetize its debt without at some point getting 26% inflation, I would be convinced I was wrong.
DeleteMy bet with Jason was if Japan's inflation stays under 5% for some period (maybe 2 years) that he wins and if it is over then I win. Loser has to post on his blog admitting he lost.
DeleteHa... well, they don't call them "theories" for nothing. You can never prove they are true. All you can do is demonstrate they are false or demonstrate that they've survived many tests to see if they're false. With every test that your hypotheses survive to check if they're false, my confidence that you're onto something would increase. It'll never be 100%. I reserve 100% for "I exist, I think and I can feel things." Everything else is on the table. (c:
DeleteBut I'm not making any claims. You are. Thus the burden is on you to tell us how your hypotheses can be falsified.
Vincent, sorry, I made the above response to your response while you were still posting your 2nd and 3rd response. OK, again, I have to give you credit. Very good, and good luck with the bet.
DeleteOf course, maybe I just want to get rich and am not really trying to convince anyone...
DeleteThe 10 year JGB pays 0.5% per year. The Yen lost 1% today. That is 2 years worth of earning gone in a day. I really think people should be running for the JGB exits. And the central bank bought so fast over the most recent 10 day period that they increased the money supply 1.5% in 10 days. I am amazed there is not a complete panic already.
DeleteHello Vincent,
ReplyDeleteI have gone through the self-publishing process. I will be writing a few entries on how I did it on the "personal finance" section of my website. I have a few references I have used already. The author M A Demers has a very good guide, that outlines the entire process, and explains the economics of the business.
I kept my book at "long report" length - 30,000 words. This makes the editing and reading a lot easier than a full length book (100,000 words and up). It is too small to be printed and show up in a bookstore, but the odds of a self-published book showing up in a bookstore is slim. In my view, it is better to publish a readable short book than to try to fill up a full length book.
Thanks for the info. Still not sure exactly what I will end up doing.
DeleteAlso - having a co-author would make life difficult. The self-publishing companies assume that they are dealing with a single entity, and they do not split royalties. You would need to set up a legal agreement with your co-author to handle that.
DeleteSo what do we do to prepare?
ReplyDeleteNormally hyperinflation has some increase in crime. So guns and general home security are more important. Gold, food, and water are good things to have. Governments usually put on price controls and make shortages of all sorts of things, so having some food storage can be important. If I had lots of money I would make a solar/electric floating house. With watermaker and food storage you could be fine for a long time. See http://blog.floatingislands.com/
DeleteI should problaby make a post on this topic. Maybe this weekend.
I am going to write some more posts to cover some more topics that I think would be good to include in a book on hyperinflation. I will add to the list above as I do them. Some I am thinking of doing are:
ReplyDelete1) How to prepare for hyperinflation
2) Stages hyperinflation does through
3) How to run a business during hyperinflation (just in time cash, not goods)
I am open to suggestions of other topics I should cover in a book on hyperinflation. I don't want to do history of different ones, as that already exists. I want to focus on understanding what happens and why.