tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post3443449801443202275..comments2024-01-27T00:46:34.345-08:00Comments on How Fiat Dies: Partner for writing a book on HyperinflationVincent Catehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06502618776820144289noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post-56159797083604213682015-06-12T15:58:41.105-07:002015-06-12T15:58:41.105-07:00I am going to write some more posts to cover some ...I am going to write some more posts to cover some more topics that I think would be good to include in a book on hyperinflation. I will add to the list above as I do them. Some I am thinking of doing are:<br /><br />1) How to prepare for hyperinflation<br />2) Stages hyperinflation does through<br />3) How to run a business during hyperinflation (just in time cash, not goods)<br /><br />I am open to suggestions of other topics I should cover in a book on hyperinflation. I don't want to do history of different ones, as that already exists. I want to focus on understanding what happens and why.<br /><br /><br />Vincent Catehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06502618776820144289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post-24605282804135814442015-06-11T08:59:08.902-07:002015-06-11T08:59:08.902-07:00Normally hyperinflation has some increase in crime...Normally hyperinflation has some increase in crime. So guns and general home security are more important. Gold, food, and water are good things to have. Governments usually put on price controls and make shortages of all sorts of things, so having some food storage can be important. If I had lots of money I would make a solar/electric floating house. With watermaker and food storage you could be fine for a long time. See http://blog.floatingislands.com/<br /><br />I should problaby make a post on this topic. Maybe this weekend.<br />Vincent Catehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06502618776820144289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post-15617901112915784932015-06-10T16:04:21.041-07:002015-06-10T16:04:21.041-07:00So what do we do to prepare?So what do we do to prepare?mikpitshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01435289266461169094noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post-12697341338545443382015-06-06T13:10:24.045-07:002015-06-06T13:10:24.045-07:00Also - having a co-author would make life difficul...Also - having a co-author would make life difficult. The self-publishing companies assume that they are dealing with a single entity, and they do not split royalties. You would need to set up a legal agreement with your co-author to handle that.Brian Romanchukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699198289421951151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post-69444284168390458622015-06-06T08:14:07.786-07:002015-06-06T08:14:07.786-07:00Thanks for the info. Still not sure exactly what ...Thanks for the info. Still not sure exactly what I will end up doing.Vincent Catehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06502618776820144289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post-7912310487954600142015-06-06T06:07:50.960-07:002015-06-06T06:07:50.960-07:00Hello Vincent,
I have gone through the self-publi...Hello Vincent,<br /><br />I have gone through the self-publishing process. I will be writing a few entries on how I did it on the "personal finance" section of my website. I have a few references I have used already. The author M A Demers has a very good guide, that outlines the entire process, and explains the economics of the business.<br /><br />I kept my book at "long report" length - 30,000 words. This makes the editing and reading a lot easier than a full length book (100,000 words and up). It is too small to be printed and show up in a bookstore, but the odds of a self-published book showing up in a bookstore is slim. In my view, it is better to publish a readable short book than to try to fill up a full length book.Brian Romanchukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699198289421951151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post-21230480017638175642015-06-05T11:02:14.727-07:002015-06-05T11:02:14.727-07:00The 10 year JGB pays 0.5% per year. The Yen lost...The 10 year JGB pays 0.5% per year. The Yen lost 1% today. That is 2 years worth of earning gone in a day. I really think people should be running for the JGB exits. And the central bank bought so fast over the most recent 10 day period that they increased the money supply 1.5% in 10 days. I am amazed there is not a complete panic already.<br />Vincent Catehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06502618776820144289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post-90473099269736300002015-06-04T17:51:15.753-07:002015-06-04T17:51:15.753-07:00Of course, maybe I just want to get rich and am no...Of course, maybe I just want to get rich and am not really trying to convince anyone...Vincent Catehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06502618776820144289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post-30032741809758365252015-06-04T17:15:12.758-07:002015-06-04T17:15:12.758-07:00Vincent, sorry, I made the above response to your ...Vincent, sorry, I made the above response to your response while you were still posting your 2nd and 3rd response. OK, again, I have to give you credit. Very good, and good luck with the bet.Tom Brownhttp://www.google.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post-61357197879257255882015-06-04T17:13:03.620-07:002015-06-04T17:13:03.620-07:00Ha... well, they don't call them "theorie...Ha... well, they don't call them "theories" for nothing. You can never prove they are true. All you can do is demonstrate they are false or demonstrate that they've survived many tests to see if they're false. With every test that your hypotheses survive to check if they're false, my confidence that you're onto something would increase. It'll never be 100%. I reserve 100% for "I exist, I think and I can feel things." Everything else is on the table. (c:<br /><br />But I'm not making any claims. You are. Thus the burden is on you to tell us how your hypotheses can be falsified.Tom Brownhttp://www.google.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post-76759933357548906392015-06-04T17:10:18.544-07:002015-06-04T17:10:18.544-07:00My bet with Jason was if Japan's inflation sta...My bet with Jason was if Japan's inflation stays under 5% for some period (maybe 2 years) that he wins and if it is over then I win. Loser has to post on his blog admitting he lost.Vincent Catehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06502618776820144289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post-83047112182523304732015-06-04T17:08:03.173-07:002015-06-04T17:08:03.173-07:00But as a real answer to your question, if Japan is...But as a real answer to your question, if Japan is able to monetize its debt without at some point getting 26% inflation, I would be convinced I was wrong. Vincent Catehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06502618776820144289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post-9800678071020878862015-06-04T17:06:13.628-07:002015-06-04T17:06:13.628-07:00Lets flip this around. If I am able to make inve...Lets flip this around. If I am able to make investments that the market puts at 1 in 100 shots and come out correct often enough that I make a lot of money and have a big yacht, would you then believe I was right?<br />Vincent Catehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06502618776820144289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post-39868209470401966202015-06-04T16:25:28.215-07:002015-06-04T16:25:28.215-07:00Hi Vincent. I know I've asked you this before,...Hi Vincent. I know I've asked you this before, but how do you know if you're wrong? I'll give you credit: you're one of the only people out there writing on these subjects that's willing to tell me that. If I'm not mistaken, that line of questioning may have had something to do with your "hyperinflation in Japan by 2016" prediction originally. I'm not sure though, because it's a little foggy now.<br /><br />I agree that predictions are really hard, but I'd accept a set of future empirical data about somewhere in the world that would convince you that you're wrong. For example: "If a 1st world country with X, Y or Z characteristics experiences A, B, or C concurrently with D, E and F, baring nuclear war or a plague that kills 1/3 of their population, then I'd know I've been wrong." <br /><br />If you ask an evolutionary biologist about what would convince him that the theory of evolution is wrong, they can give you a list of things. A rabbit fossil in the pre-Cambrian layer is a classic one on that list. (I just saw a list like this from a biologist by the name of Jerry Coyne this morning). In other words, even though there's a lot of evidence to support evolution, it's still a theory, and it can be falsified. <br /><br />So what combination of future data would convince you that you're wrong? Can you give any examples? Would "No hyperinflation in Japan in 2016" do it? Would "No hyperinflation in the first 6 months of 2016" do it? Do you need to make a more complex example?Tom Brownhttp://www.google.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post-48519693059542646852015-06-04T16:04:30.604-07:002015-06-04T16:04:30.604-07:00Note also that when people start getting out of bo...Note also that when people start getting out of bonds is when things start going bad. Bonds are having trouble recently.Vincent Catehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06502618776820144289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post-20458749611787218802015-06-04T15:58:33.031-07:002015-06-04T15:58:33.031-07:00Predictions are really hard, especially about the ...Predictions are really hard, especially about the future. :-)<br /><br />I still think Japan is headed for trouble soon.Vincent Catehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06502618776820144289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post-48742965558064830322015-06-04T10:13:00.872-07:002015-06-04T10:13:00.872-07:00Hi Vincent. According to you predictions at the en...Hi Vincent. According to you predictions at the end of 2013, we should start seeing hyperinflation hitting Japan in about 7 months, correct?<br /><br />Did you and Jason ever agree on a bet about that?Tom Brownhttp://www.google.comnoreply@blogger.com