Saturday, January 11, 2014
Mish needs to understand what is happening during hyperinflation
Again this week Mish was ridiculing hyperinflation with words like "stupid", "foolish", and "preposterous".
However, Mish really only looks at the setup for and the after effects of hyperinflation. He never looks directly at hyperinflation. He understands that the core problems leading up to hyperinflation are political in nature. However, this is the setup, before hyperinflation starts. He understands that it usually ends in the destruction of the currency, or a "complete loss of faith in the currency". But this is after hyperinflation has ended. There can be many years between the setup and the after effects, and this is the time that is really called "hyperinflation". He has yet to focus on what is going on in the actual hyperinflation period.
The core political problem always results in the government deficit spending, a large debt, and the central bank monetizing the debt. Monetizing debt is a monetary phenomenon. Another key issue is that the velocity of money always increases at the start of hyperinflation and this helps make prices go up. Quantity of money and velocity of money are monetary phenomenon. Mish is clearly wrong when he says, "hyperinflation is not a monetary phenomenon".
I think it is fundamentally wrong for anyone to say there is no risk of hyperinflation without first describing their theory of how hyperinflation works.
I have more than 30 different ways of explaining the interesting process of hyperinflation that Mish skips over. I also have a Hyperinflation FAQ that counters Mish's arguments. I dearly wish that Mish would look at the actual process of hyperinflation.
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While I really like reading Mish's blog for his economic analysis, on this issue I tend to agree with people like Mike Maloney or Harry Dent (e.g. see his debate with Peter Schiff here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27q-rKPZMn0) - we'll see deflation first, THEN the potential response by the politicians/bureaucrats could be very inflationary in nature.
ReplyDeleteIt all boils down to what you believe the Fed/Gov. will do. Apparently Mish believes the Fed won't increase QE to 200 billion a month to prop everything up. He is waiting for the stock market bubble to pop.Will they let it pop? Who knows. He has said that if the Gov. mailed everyone a check for $100,000.00 we would get hyperinflation. He doesn't think they would do that. Would they? Who knows. Will QE at 100 billion a month start an inflation spiral? 200 billion? Or will they continue to taper and let the stock market crash?
ReplyDeleteThe thing is nobody would have believed we would have the Fed printing 85 billion a month for a year. And now there just going to dial it up or down depending on who knows what.....Insane already.....Janet Yellen as the Fed head now....With them controlling/manipulating everything maybe we get shortages of food and fuel first? Who knows? When you have so many issues and moving parts and changes coming to the economy I can tell you that NOBODY - not the Fed,Mish,you,me,Shiff,Williams,Gov. - nobody knows how this grand experiment will end. Other than I guess history showing how all fiat currency experiments end......I guess it's just a timing issue I suppose.....
Who knows, check out this article:
Deletehttp://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2014/01/monetary-policy-fiscal-policy-the-target-and-the-size-of-the-central-bank.html
The clear implication is that if the central bank (CB) targets very low inflation or very low NGDP level increases, then the CB has to be very very large and to own lots of assets for it to be successful. Thus the joke near the end and in the comments, that 0% inflation = extreme socialism. Do you follow the logic of that article?
Meh - not trying to be mean here and it's cool that you are reading and digesting this stuff - but it's 1. Over my head, and 2. Who cares?
DeleteWe are officially in loony tune land now with currencies/this whole system. Everything is just made up now. And on the fly. Heck, go read Martin Armstrong's latest post. He says we should not have to pay taxes(which I agree with the concept- at least federally) and not borrow money as a country(which I also agree with) but instead just PRINT ALL THE MONEY WE NEED/WANT TO SPEND AS A NATION! Daaaahhhhhh. I don't want to call anyone names just for having a really bad idea, but that a grown man such as Martin Armstrong would suggest this is a sign of our total delusion. Debating the points that are in the article you linked to is a waste of time IMO as we need a total change in the world monetary system.
"we need a total change in the world monetary system."
DeleteThat seems like a very radical move... at least as radical as just printing all the money we need. :D
Heh - It's not easy being cheesy......
Delete