Thursday, August 8, 2013

Everything Is OK So Far

There are many many posts out there by people who advocated printing lots of new money where they congratulate themselves that, as far as inflation, everything is OK so far.   They seem to believe that the last few years are proof that you can make huge amounts of new money without getting inflation.  This ignores all the rest of history and normal economic theory like the equation of exchange.  It also ignores the fact that while Bernanke has made lots of new money, he has also managed to keep it from leaving his building so far.  It also ignores that really low interest rates make for really low velocity of money but then later as the interest rates go up and the velocity of money goes up you get the inflationary pressure.  So this huge money creation without inflation will not last forever.  

Japan is increasing the money supply at hyperinflation rates but since it has not caused prices to go up yet, everyone seems to think everything is OK so far.   Things are not OK.  It is out of control already.

In any case, this reminds me of an old joke.  A guy jumps off a 100 story building and as he passes the 50th floor he yells out, "everything is OK so far".


  1. Would it be prudent to take up a fixed interest loan in Yen at this time? I.e. Betting on the possibility that the value of the Yen will plummet over the next years? Is that what investors are doing now?

    1. If someone could borrow yen for 10 years and buy gold, my guess is it would do well. But I am probably not allowed to give investment advice in your country, so this should not be taken as investment advice.


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