Thursday, July 11, 2013

Taper Tantrum

Bernanke's talk of tapering down the rate of quantitative easing seems to have triggered a tantrum in the bond market.   But the more people get out of bonds, the more the remaining people are losing and deciding to get out.  This could be a chain reaction or positive feedback loop.  If foreign governments/central-banks also sell, as seems to be the case, there could be a lot of selling.   If the US dollar also starts going down, as the central bank make more and more new money to buy more and more bonds, we might get the hyperinflation feedback loop.   So this taper tantrum might just end in hyperinflation. 

I really expect Japan to go first as the central bank there is monetizing very fast to hold interest rates very low.   But the US is not very stable at the moment either. 

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