Thursday, February 24, 2011

Abandon All Hope

After the US voters showed a clear interest in government having some fiscal restraint congress can only find $74 billion to cut out of a budget of $3,800 billion.  For this and other reasons things are going to get really bad. These cuts will probably really end up smaller.

Over the last two months the 2011 deficit estimate has gone from $1.267 trillion to $1.4 trillion and then $1.645 trillion. So the best estimate of the size of the deficit has gone up $378 billion in the last 2 months when they have been promising cuts.    Every 1% increase in interest rates adds around $140 billion per year in interest payments on the debt.  Interest rates are going up.  These $74 billion cuts are nothing, the deficit will keep going up.

The printing of money is out of control and there is no longer any reason to hope that it will be controlled.  The US has past its Havenstein Moment.  At this point hyperinflation is nearly certain.  As they say when a hurricane is coming, "PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION."


  1. Hi Vince,

    just to drop a note that I enjoy your blog and your 38 cycle write up. I learn quite a bit from it. I believe you are correct and Mish is wrong in this regard.




Looking for polite debate on ideas. Never attack a person. Be nice.