tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post301895044811689004..comments2024-01-27T00:46:34.345-08:00Comments on How Fiat Dies: Shape of graph for BOJ holdings of JGBsVincent Catehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06502618776820144289noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post-15299781120414807342016-03-19T18:27:43.774-07:002016-03-19T18:27:43.774-07:00But note that I can get 100 to 1 payoff if I am ri...But note that I can get 100 to 1 payoff if I am right on a 2 year bet. I could be wrong for many years and as long as I was eventually right I could do well. The "no hyperinflation this year" prediction is like a stopped clock that is right most of the time. :-)<br />Vincent Catehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06502618776820144289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post-84277738977636418132016-03-19T11:50:57.614-07:002016-03-19T11:50:57.614-07:00... and yes, I know you qualified that saying it&#...... and yes, I know you qualified that saying it's hard to predict. But even a year and 3 or four months ago (my link above) you were saying "stick a fork in it!"<br /><br />(I figure I better get my dig in now while I have the chance) :DTom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post-22867971717747527902016-03-19T11:46:12.053-07:002016-03-19T11:46:12.053-07:00Hey Vincent, do you recall more than two years ago...Hey Vincent, do you recall more than two years ago now... I asked you for your thoughts on when Japan would start experiencing hyperinflation (your version of low bar hyperinflation: 2% a month, which works out to about 26% a year) for at least two months in a row. You very bravely went out on a limb and said the beginning of 2016... so if that's the 1st two months, that would have been January and February.<br /><br />I can't find our original conversation on that, but here's a 1-year reminder and your response (you were still on board for January of 2016 at the time).<br /><a href="http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2014/12/8-to-12-trillion-new-yen-per-month.html?showComment=1421327517243#c7487243561496120871" rel="nofollow">http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2014/12/8-to-12-trillion-new-yen-per-month.html?showComment=1421327517243#c7487243561496120871</a>Tom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892824566694270102.post-67264003661188493522016-03-18T03:25:45.103-07:002016-03-18T03:25:45.103-07:00On the other hand the total government debt to GDP...On the other hand the total government debt to GDP is flattening: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-debt-to-gdp/forecast <br /><br />If the market is fine with current debt levels, and if they are flattening, I think the market would also be fine with BOJ owning more Bonds. Dan https://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com